The Forecasting Systems

In the framework of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network (MOON) and of the Gruppo Nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa (GNOO), the Operational Oceanography Group provides operational forecasting products in:

1 – Ocean Circulation
Sicily Strait sub-Regional Model (SCRM)

clicca x aprireThe Operational Sicily Strait Forecast System provides a daily 5-days forecast of the 3D ocean characteristics (temperature, salinity, etc.) and circulation in the Sicily Strait area. The covered domain is: 008.95°E-017.1°E, 30°N-39.5°N. The system is one-way asynchronously nested to the coarse OGCM (1/16° horizontal resolution) of the whole Mediterranean basin developed at the Dynamics and Climatology Unit of the INGV in Bologna. A the surface the system is forced through momentum fluxes, heat and “water” calculated from the atmospheric parameter fields of high or coarse weather forecast systems. A version with 1/32° horizontal resolution has been developed within the framework of MFSTEP project and operative since 2004 (named SCRM3230). A simulation of the last seven days of analysis fields released once a week is also available, then producing a monthly mean climatology. An update version at 1/48° horizontal resolution has been recently released and is available on-line in the framework of the ECOOP project. It has been operative since 2009 (named SCRM4830).

Western Mediterranean sub-Regional Model (WMRM)

The Operational western Mediterranean – Sardinian Seas Forecast System provides a daily 5-days forecast of the 3D ocean characteristics (temperature, salinity, etc.) and circulation in the seas around Sardinia at 1/32° horizontal resolution. The covered domain is: 003°-016 °E; 36.5-44.5 °N. The system is one-way asynchronously nested to the coarse OGCM (1/16° horizontal resolution) of the whole Mediterranean basin developed at the Dynamics and Climatology Unit of the INGV in Bologna. At the surface the system is forced through momentum fluxes, heat and “water” calculated from the atmospheric parameter fields of the ECMWF weather forecast system.

Bonifacio Strait & La Maddalena Archipelago

The numerical simulation system of the coastal circulation provides two daily forecasts, to maximum 3 days each, of the barotropic current velocities in the Bonifacio Strait and La Maddalena Archipelago at steps of 6 hours. The core of the forecasting system is the SHYFEM, a finite element hydrodynamic numerical model that has been already validated and calibrated in previous studies (Ferrarin et al., 2004, Cucco et al., 2006). Such a model well reproduces the tide and wind induced water circulation in the study area where it is applied in its 2D version in order to reproduce the barotropic current velocities. Numerical simulations are carried out over a computational domain that represents the area between 009°6.899′ and 009°37.06′ of longitude E and, 41°6.2′ and 41°25.683′ of latitude N, by means of a finite element staggered grid. The numerical grid consists of 40000 nodes and 70000 triangular elements and is characterized by different spatial resolutions varying from 10m, for the smallest channels in the La Maddalena Archipelago, to few kms in the off-shore areas inside and outside the Bonifacio Strait. The model considers the off-shore perimeter of the computational domain as open boundary. The model is forced by an astronomic tide imposed at the open boundary and by a wind intensity and direction imposed as surface boundary condition. Meteorological data are provided by means of the SKIRON high resolution atmospheric numerical model.

2 – Wave
Sicily Strait Wave Model

The numerical simulation system of the coastal wave field provides a daily forecast, to maximum 5 days, of the wave height & direction in the Sicily Strait area at steps of 3 hours. The core of the forecasting system is the SHYFEM, a finite element hydrodynamic numerical model that has been already validated and calibrated in previous studies (Ferrarin et al., 2004, Cucco et al., 2006). Such a model well reproduces the tide and wind induced water circulation in the study area where it is applied in its 2D version in order to reproduce the wave height & direction. Numerical simulations are carried out over a computational domain that represents the area between 008.95° and 017.1° of longitude E and, 30° and 39.5° of latitude N, by means of a finite element staggered grid. The numerical grid consists nodes and triangular elements with different spatial resolutions varying from 10m, for the smallest coastal areas, to few kms off-shore. The model considers the off-shore perimeter of the computational domain as open boundary. The model is forced by an astronomic tide imposed at the open boundary and by a wind intensity and direction imposed as surface boundary condition. Meteorological data are provided by means of the SKIRON high resolution atmospheric numerical model.

Bonifacio Strait & La Maddalena Archipelago (BOOM)

The numerical simulation system of the coastal circulation provides two daily forecasts, to maximum 3 days each, of the wave height in the Bonifacio Mouths and in La Maddalena Archipelago at steps of 6 hours. The core of the forecasting system is the SHYFEM, a finite element hydrodynamic numerical model that has been already validated and calibrated in previous studies (Ferrarin et al., 2004, Cucco et al., 2006). Such a model well reproduces the tide and wind induced water circulation in the study area where it is applied in its 2D version in order to reproduce the wave height. Numerical simulations are carried out over a computational domain that represents the area between 009°6.899′ and 009°37.06′ of longitude E and, 41°6.2′ and 41°25.683′ of latitude N, by means of a finite element staggered grid. The numerical grid consists of 40000 nodes and 70000 triangular elements and is characterized by different spatial resolutions varying from 10m, for the smallest channels in the La Maddalena Archipelago, to few kms in the off-shore areas inside and outside the Bonifacio Mouths. The model considers the off-shore perimeter of the computational domain as open boundary. The model is forced by an astronomic tide imposed at the open boundary and by a wind intensity and direction imposed as surface boundary condition. Meteorological data are provided by means of the SKIRON high resolution atmospheric numerical model.

Western Mediterranean Wave Model

The numerical simulation system of the coastal wave field provides a daily forecast, to maximum 5 days, of the wave height & direction in the western Mediterranean area (seas around Sardinia) at steps of 3 hours. The core of the forecasting system is the SHYFEM, a finite element hydrodynamic numerical model that has been already validated and calibrated in previous studies (Ferrarin et al., 2004, Cucco et al., 2006). Such a model well reproduces the tide and wind induced water circulation in the study area where it is applied in its 2D version in order to reproduce the wave height & direction. Numerical simulations are carried out over a computational domain that represents the area between 003°-016° of longitude E and 36.5°-44.5° of latitude N, by means of a finite element staggered grid. The numerical grid consists nodes and triangular elements with different spatial resolutions varying from 10m, for the smallest coastal areas, to few kms off-shore. The model considers the off-shore perimeter of the computational domain as open boundary. The model is forced by an astronomic tide imposed at the open boundary and by a wind intensity and direction imposed as surface boundary condition. Meteorological data are provided by means of the SKIRON high resolution atmospheric numerical model.

3 – Ecosystem modelling
End-to-End ATLANTIS Model

Atlantis is an ecosystem box-model intended for use in Management Strategy Evaluation. It has been applied to multiple marine systems (from single bays to millions of square kilometres) such as Australia, United States. North Sea, Baltic Sea, Iceland, South Africa and other environments.
At the centre of the model, a deterministic biophysical submodel is spatially-resolved in three dimensions The physical environment is also represented explicitly – via a set of polygons matched to the major geographical and bioregional features of the simulated marine system.
Atlantis also features a detailed exploitation model. This model deals with the impact of pollution, coastal development and broad-scale environmental changes.

The Sicily of Strait version is focused on the detailed dynamics of fishing fleets. It allows for multiple fleets, each with its own characteristics (regarding gear selectivity, habitat association, targeting, effort allocation and management structures).
Atlantis for the Strait of Sicily provides a useful tool for identifying the interactions between natural and anthropogenic pressures, assess their effects on the ecosystem, to compare the potential consequences (biological, social and economical) and trade-offs derived from the application of alternative management scenarios.
In particular the model was developed to:

  • describe the structure and functioning of the whole trophic web and the interactions with environmental forcing, in particular focusing on commercially important species;
  • model the effect of climatic or man-induced changes on marine habitats and ecosystem;
  • assess socio-economic vulnerabilities and evaluate how potential climate-driven physical and biological changes may affect relevant economic activities and human welfare;
  • identify trade-offs related to the application of different management scenarios (e.g. gear restrictions, spatial or temporal closure schemes, etc).